The Official Josh Beckett Thread

[EverettsTheoryOfEvolution]

It seems Beckett is the topic of discussion in 2 or 3 different threads right now, and I was thinking it would be nice to have a discussion just on him. It seems to me his success or failure could be a major factor in the amount of success the sox have over the next few years.

I was checking his stats over at http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=510&position=P

Some things I noticed:
No matter what the reason, 2006 was a statistical anomaly. Some of his stats are so far out of line (ERA, HR, K/9) that they can't be seen as a normal deviation, or predictable decline. Does this indicate a likely bounce back season, or has something "happened" to him?

The good things, though - in 2006 he threw more innings (204.2) than any other season in his career. He also had his highest win total, despite obviously slumping in certain areas. I know not much stock is placed in win totals, but I think it is at least somewhat significant here - the same pitcher in the same system against very similar competition can be expected to have a similar win total. If your number 2-3 pitcher can get 16 wins in a bad season, at a cost of 9 to 13 million, is he really all that bad? (my take: for the season, you're doing good, but you're not set up for post-season play).

I'm not a stat head, so I haven't done an exhaustive analysis by any means - I really just wanted to open the door for some discussion.

[oldskool138]

When Clement joined the team, I really wanted to like him but it didn't work out. I felt the same way about Josh last season. I really wanted to like him but he gave up a ton of HR's and kept shaking 'Tek off.

In fact, I remember watching a game last season, where Josh kept shaking him off and shaking him off. 'Tek finally went out the mound to talk to him. On the very next pitch the batter hit a HR. In the replay, you can see that 'Tek isn't even watching the flight of the ball. He's staring at Beckett and shaking his head.

He's stubborn but I think that comes from lack of maturity and finding success so early in his career. He's 26. I think he can learn. He's penciled in as our #2 guy. Tito, Theo, and Farrell have faith that he can make the proper adjustments. Young power pitchers with experience are hard to find. Plus, he was the big aquisition last year. This year, he's another face in the crowd. I think he'll do better this year. I say he finishes with a 3.78 ERA (maybe a little higher) and wins about 15 or 16 games (hopefully more with this offense).

[#1Patsfan_chica]

I really like Josh Beckett and this goes back to 2003 when I saw him almost singled handlely beat the Yankees.

Last year, I know it was a tough year for Beckett. It was his first time in the AL, no more pitching to a pitcher. And a lot of his problems was in the first inning.

So I have a lot of hope for Beckett this year.

[Izzo=great]

I like Becket but i dont respect him. Ill respect him as soon as he makes up for the way he played last season. Hes a solid player and im happy we have him. He really adds a lot of depth to the pitching staff :)

[Mikiemo83]

last season may have something to do with the revolving Pitching coach, remember Nip was the bullpen coach and fell into the position because of DaveWallace hip issues.

I give last season a Bob Lobel Mulligan and hope for a full season with Farrell and "Tek catching him, he will see the light and trust the others around him

[oldskool138]

Well, NewsBot says that Josh did great against some college kids. I don't know what we can take from it but he a quality Spring Training outing is a quality Spring Training outing.

[beenbag21]

I don't know how much he studies batters, but Tek probably does that more than most people. Like oldskool said, he needs to trust Tek's call on pitches.

[Fully Tilted]

21 pitches, 18 strikes and 5 K's is a nice way to start stretching out in ST. Nice work JB.