The Shortstop Question

[sprocketboy]

I've seen a few threads here, such as the Julio Lugo Appreciation Thread and one about JJ Hardy, that mention different shortstops around the league as possible solutions to "The Shortstop Question."

I don't know when Lowrie is due back. I personally hope he comes back at one hundred percent and has a long and productive offensive and defensive career as the starting shortstop for the Boston Red Sox.

The premise of this thread, though, is to assume that he does not.

In that case ... who is really available?

I assume the following "design parameters" will need to be met for a trade to realistically happen:



The SS in question must be the trading team's everyday starter.
For a team to be willing to trade him away, that team's postseason chances must fall in the "slim to none" range.
The trading team must be trying to either (a) dump the shortstop's salary from an existing contract, or (b) avoid giving him a lucrative long-term deal because he's entering arbitration or free agency.
The trading team must either already have a shortstop prospect they want to bring up from the minors, or must be receiving such a prospect in return, either from the Red Sox or as part of a multi-team deal.
The shortstop being traded must be significantly better with the glove than Lugo, Green, and the returning Lowrie.
Offensive numbers are less important, but the shortstop being traded can't be an automatic out or instant double-play waiting to happen. At the very least, he should be able to advance a runner with a sacrifice bunt.

Given these design parameters, who is available out there? JJ Hardy is on a first place team, so unless the Brew Crew starts drowning in their own vats, I doubt he will be on the trading block. Who else? OCab? Stephen Drew? Edgar Rent-a-Player? Okay, kidding about that one ... been there, done that. Miguel Tejada and his Travelling Roid Show? Bueller? Anyone? Anyone?

Feel free to add to, modify, or dispute my design parameters, if you think I have something wrong.

[Grumpy_Bottom]

Can we get Alex Gonzales back?

[JBay44]

I've seen a few threads here, such as the Julio Lugo Appreciation Thread and one about JJ Hardy, that mention different shortstops around the league as possible solutions to "The Shortstop Question."

I don't know when Lowrie is due back. I personally hope he comes back at one hundred percent and has a long and productive offensive and defensive career as the starting shortstop for the Boston Red Sox.

The premise of this thread, though, is to assume that he does not.

In that case ... who is really available?

I assume the following "design parameters" will need to be met for a trade to realistically happen:



The SS in question must be the trading team's everyday starter.
For a team to be willing to trade him away, that team's postseason chances must fall in the "slim to none" range.
The trading team must be trying to either (a) dump the shortstop's salary from an existing contract, or (b) avoid giving him a lucrative long-term deal because he's entering arbitration or free agency.
The trading team must either already have a shortstop prospect they want to bring up from the minors, or must be receiving such a prospect in return, either from the Red Sox or as part of a multi-team deal.
The shortstop being traded must be significantly better with the glove than Lugo, Green, and the returning Lowrie.
Offensive numbers are less important, but the shortstop being traded can't be an automatic out or instant double-play waiting to happen. At the very least, he should be able to advance a runner with a sacrifice bunt.

Given these design parameters, who is available out there? JJ Hardy is on a first place team, so unless the Brew Crew starts drowning in their own vats, I doubt he will be on the trading block. Who else? OCab? Stephen Drew? Edgar Rent-a-Player? Okay, kidding about that one ... been there, done that. Miguel Tejada and his Travelling Roid Show? Bueller? Anyone? Anyone?

Feel free to add to, modify, or dispute my design parameters, if you think I have something wrong.


JJ Hardy is probably the most likely candidate to fit the bill. The Brewers have Alcides Escobar in the minors, who's their #2 rated prospect. Hardy's a solid defender, and he's capable of a .750 OPS. He'd be a fine addition at the bottom of the order.

Even though not all criteria are met, Pittsburgh's Jack Wilson will certainly be available. He's a definite step up defensively from what the Sox have now, although his bat is pretty anemic.

I'm still hoping Lowrie is the answer. I just don't know if I can take another month of the Lugo/Green trainwreck platoon.

[southcarolina]

Like i said in the JJ Hardy thread, i cant imagine the Brewers trading away their starting SS as long as they are in first place, or in striking distance of the post season. Escobar, while a nice prospect, has four ML at bats. (And in researching the guy, if this is the Brewers #2 prospect, their farm must be barren...Escobar has a career minor league OPS of .700 and has never had fewer than 20 erros in any full season, and already has 9 this season...that doesnt strike me as someone who is just waiting in the wngs for the Brewers to unblock the ML SS position by unloading Hardy)

I think at this point the most likely scenario for the Sox to make a trade for a SS is to take on a big veteran contract from a team that is trying to cut payroll, similar to what they did in the Beckett/Lowell trade.

I know there was some talk of the Sox being interested in Miguel Montero this past offseason, most likely at the price of taking on Eric Byrnes contract. I wonder if they would even listen to trade talk for a Eric Byrnes/Stephen Drew package. Drew isnt exactly lighting the world on fire this season, but he had a .836 OPS last season, and looks to be average to slightly above average defensively (although i admit i dont really completely understand how to compare the defensive metris most often cited so i could be off base here) Plus that, if i am anything, i am all about reunitinf brothers to play on the same team :)

Or maybe Colorado might listen to a trade involving Troy Tulowitski. The Rockies are on the hook for 27 mil over the next three seasons for him. Maybe they would listen to a salary swap deal...the Sox take Tulowitski's contract (3 year, 27 mil left), plus Todd Helton's contract (2 yrs 36 mil) and the Rockies take Julio Lugo (1 tear 9 mil, unless he gets 600 PA in 2010 then it becomes 2 years and 18 million) and Mike Lowell (1 year 12 million) plus a couple of prospects to make it worth their while.



On the RedSox side, the money is almost equal in 2010 (20 mil for Tulo and Helton, 21 mil for Lugo and Lowell). In 2011 the Sox would be on the hook for about 24.5 million for Tulo and Helton, and about 13 mil in 2012 (Helton has a 4.6 million dollar buyout, Tulo is owed 8.25 mil) and 10 mil in 2013 (all Tulowitski) In 2014 Tulo would be 29 years old, and the Sox would have a 15 mil club option with a 2 mil buyout. Helton has a full no trade clause, but has said in the past that he would consider waiving it to come to Boston.

So total value the Rockies save 48 million dollars (or 39 million if Lugo's option vests) and get maybe Lars Anderson (who would be blocked by Helton/Youks for the forseeable future) and Dan Bard (whose 100 MPH heat doesnt move anyway, so he might as well be pitching in Colorado) to hang their white flag on. Lugo plays SS for them the rest of this season. They find someone to platoon with him in 2010, making damn sure he doesnt hit 600 PA. Lowell becomes a one season expensive back up for them. 2010 is a lost season for the Rockies, but in the following offseason with both off the books, their payroll situation could look very rosy.

The Sox get a SS of the future (assuming his rookie season wasnt an anomoly) and a veteran firstbaseman in Helton who is still a capable hitter and near GG defensively, which allows the Sox to move KYook back to third. An infield of Helton/Pedroia/Tulowitski/Youkilis is pretty solid. Helton will only be 37 when his contract expires, so its entirely likely that he could be useful for the rest of his contract.

I know none of this will ever come to pass, that its all fantasy baseball wishful thinking, but it sure is fun isnt it?

[southcarolina]

I've seen a few threads here, such as the Julio Lugo Appreciation Thread and one about JJ Hardy, that mention different shortstops around the league as possible solutions to "The Shortstop Question."

I don't know when Lowrie is due back. I personally hope he comes back at one hundred percent and has a long and productive offensive and defensive career as the starting shortstop for the Boston Red Sox.

The premise of this thread, though, is to assume that he does not.

In that case ... who is really available?

I assume the following "design parameters" will need to be met for a trade to realistically happen:



The SS in question must be the trading team's everyday starter.
For a team to be willing to trade him away, that team's postseason chances must fall in the "slim to none" range.
The trading team must be trying to either (a) dump the shortstop's salary from an existing contract, or (b) avoid giving him a lucrative long-term deal because he's entering arbitration or free agency.
The trading team must either already have a shortstop prospect they want to bring up from the minors, or must be receiving such a prospect in return, either from the Red Sox or as part of a multi-team deal.
The shortstop being traded must be significantly better with the glove than Lugo, Green, and the returning Lowrie.
Offensive numbers are less important, but the shortstop being traded can't be an automatic out or instant double-play waiting to happen. At the very least, he should be able to advance a runner with a sacrifice bunt.

Given these design parameters, who is available out there? JJ Hardy is on a first place team, so unless the Brew Crew starts drowning in their own vats, I doubt he will be on the trading block. Who else? OCab? Stephen Drew? Edgar Rent-a-Player? Okay, kidding about that one ... been there, done that. Miguel Tejada and his Travelling Roid Show? Bueller? Anyone? Anyone?

Feel free to add to, modify, or dispute my design parameters, if you think I have something wrong.

I also think you need to add as a parameter to this deal that any team that meets the other requirement is almost assuredly in rebuilding mode, so it is very very unlikely that any trade that starts with "The RedSox send Brad Penny to...." will even be considered. Rebuilding teams want prospects, not aging vets. Penny will most probably be traded, but it will be to a team that still feels its in the playoff hunt.

Also, I personally could live with Green/Lugos defense if either were hitting .340 with 14 home runs. So, if their replacement isnt Ozzie Smith, but can hit, i can live with that too.


heres a (rather surprising) list of ML SS OPS (not everyone, just names relavant to this thread)

Nick Green .741
Jack Wilson .693
Troy Tulowitski .683
JJ Hardy .675
Julio Lugo .671
Stephen Drew .661

After looking at this, i would be more than satisfied with Jack Wilson. It would be a simpler trade too.

Heres another name: Cristian Guzman. I dont think he is a strong defender at SS, but he has a .346 OBP and .796 OPS hitting in the tomb that is Arlingon Nationals Cemetary. And i believe he has experience hitting leadoff, which has been an issue for the Sox. And the Nats are going nowhere. What about a Guzman/Dunn for prospects trade?

[SamBam39]

I think the thing to keep in mind here that as sucky as the SS defense has been, and as awful as the starting pitching has been (until recently) and as horrible as the DH production has been...the Sox are still hanging in there in first in the AL East. Lowrie is coming back, and while he won't make anyone forget Ozzie Smith, he seems to make most of the "makeable" plays. And his range is certainly better than Lugo's at this point. So I think the Sox are going to cherry pick the best deal they can get to improve the club and it may not be a SS. It still may be a hitter or even a catcher.

[southcarolina]

I think the thing to keep in mind here that as sucky as the SS defense has been, and as awful as the starting pitching has been (until recently) and as horrible as the DH production has been...the Sox are still hanging in there in first in the AL East. Lowrie is coming back, and while he won't make anyone forget Ozzie Smith, he seems to make most of the "makeable" plays. And his range is certainly better than Lugo's at this point. So I think the Sox are going to cherry pick the best deal they can get to improve the club and it may not be a SS. It still may be a hitter or even a catcher.

Hey take your non SS talk outta this SS thread!!!



:D


Yeah i agree SB. The FO's MO isnt exactly the blockbuster deal anyway. I *could* actually see them making a deal for Wilson. He probably wont cost an A prospect, and wouldnt hit any worse than Lugo has, and would allow them the flexability to play Lowrie at third sometimes, to give Lowell a day off, or Ortiz a day off (with Lowell becoming the DH) or as a late inning defensive replacement for Lowell. And Wilson would provide insurance in case Lowrie doesnt recover well from this latest injury.

One potential downside to Wilson is that his career OBP is only .311. So maybe he isnt the type of player Theo covets

[3 Point Stan]

Also, I personally could live with Green/Lugos defense if either were hitting .340 with 14 home runs. So, if their replacement isnt Ozzie Smith, but can hit, i can live with that too.

I'm the opposite. I could live with the dog shit offense if either of these guys could provide even adequate defense. Up-the-middle defense is so critical and a lack of it can really have a negative impact on a pitching staff. With the offense the Red Sox have, their most pressing need is just someone (or some shrubbery) than can knock a ball down and make a put-out.

They had that last year in Lowrie. I can't see them making a move until they've determined he is not the person to step in here and bolster that position.

God I hate our SS's :)

[southcarolina]

I'm the opposite. I could live with the dog shit offense if either of these guys could provide even adequate defense. Up-the-middle defense is so critical and a lack of it can really have a negative impact on a pitching staff. With the offense the Red Sox have, their most pressing need is just someone (or some shrubbery) than can knock a ball down and make a put-out.

They had that last year in Lowrie. I can't see them making a move until they've determined he is not the person to step in here and bolster that position.

God I hate our SS's :)

Oh i could live with that too. I was just saying i can live with a SS that does either one or the other well.

[SamBam39]

Short term solution until they figure out the Lowrie/ trade option is to play Nick Green. He is the lesser of 2 evils and for whatever reason the team wins when he plays.

[sprocketboy]

Re: Alex Gonzalez

According to this site (http://www.redreporter.com/2009/3/27/811344/the-red-report-alex-gonzal), Gonzales is in the final year of a three-year deal with the Reds that pays him $5.375M this year. He and the team have a mutual option for one more year at $6M with a $600k buyout.

Gonzalez is currently being backed up by one Paul Janish, a 27-year old with only 124 Major League at-bats. I don't know if the Reds consider Janish to be their SS of the future. If not, the Reds have a shortstop in AAA Louisville named Chris Valaika (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Chris%20Valaika&pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453362) who is listed as the Reds' Number 5 Prospect by Keith Law (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3849552). Janish appeared in relief once for the Reds, performing mop-up duty in a blowout. By a strange coincidence, he struck out JJ Hardy in the inning he pitched. There's a video on Janish's page at MLB.com. (http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=457926)

I haven't followed Gonzalez much since he left the Red Sox. He's three years older now. Is he still as good with the glove as I remember? I also remember people on other boards bemoaning his lack of offensive production. If Gonzalez were to return, I doubt people would be as critical of his bat, especially after the Lugo experiment.

[sprocketboy]

Or maybe Colorado might listen to a trade involving Troy Tulowitski. The Rockies are on the hook for 27 mil over the next three seasons for him. Maybe they would listen to a salary swap deal...the Sox take Tulowitski's contract (3 year, 27 mil left), plus Todd Helton's contract (2 yrs 36 mil) and the Rockies take Julio Lugo (1 tear 9 mil, unless he gets 600 PA in 2010 then it becomes 2 years and 18 million) and Mike Lowell (1 year 12 million) plus a couple of prospects to make it worth their while.


Lowell I could see. I think Colorado would only take him if (a) they planned to let him finish the year as their regular third baseman (Garrett Atkins hasn't been hitting or fielding too well this year, if you believe his stats), or (b) the Rox already had a second deal in the works where they would 'flip' Lowell to another contender in exchange for more prospects.

Lugo, not so much. At this point, I have to figure that he has negative trade value. If Epstein could con another GM into taking Lugo under any conditions, it would only add to Epstein's legacy.

[steve1]

Jed Lowrie is the shortstop when he comes back, in a few days. He would be the shortstop if he hadn't been injured. There will be no trade for a starting shortstop. The Sox will be dumping a shortstop soon. Lugo will be dumped.

Jed Lowrie is the Red Sox shortstop we will remember from 2009.

[sprocketboy]

Jed Lowrie is the shortstop when he comes back, in a few days. He would be the shortstop if he hadn't been injured. There will be no trade for a starting shortstop. The Sox will be dumping a shortstop soon. Lugo will be dumped.

Jed Lowrie is the Red Sox shortstop we will remember from 2009.

Just about everyone here hopes you are right.

But the question posed in this thread is: what if Lowrie doesn't come back strong?

Epstein didn't get where he is today by putting all his money on a single horse. He must have a contingency plan.

[southcarolina]

Jed Lowrie is the shortstop when he comes back, in a few days. He would be the shortstop if he hadn't been injured. There will be no trade for a starting shortstop. The Sox will be dumping a shortstop soon. Lugo will be dumped.

Jed Lowrie is the Red Sox shortstop we will remember from 2009..

Jed Lowrie, before he got hurt this season, was 1 for 20. Granted it is a small sample size in the extreme, but Jed Lowrie being any better than Lugo or Green in 2009 is anything but a sure thing.

EDIT: Quoted wrong post

[southcarolina]

Lowell I could see. I think Colorado would only take him if (a) they planned to let him finish the year as their regular third baseman (Garrett Atkins hasn't been hitting or fielding too well this year, if you believe his stats), or (b) the Rox already had a second deal in the works where they would 'flip' Lowell to another contender in exchange for more prospects.

Lugo, not so much. At this point, I have to figure that he has negative trade value. If Epstein could con another GM into taking Lugo under any conditions, it would only add to Epstein's legacy.

I know the Rockies wouldnt take either Lugo or Lowell expecting any positive contributions from them. It would be purely a salary dump. They save 40 million dollars over the next three seasons. The price is watching Lugo butcher balls at Coors Field for the 2010 season.

[sprocketboy]

I know the Rockies wouldnt take either Lugo or Lowell expecting any positive contributions from them. It would be purely a salary dump. They save 40 million dollars over the next three seasons. The price is watching Lugo butcher balls at Coors Field for the 2010 season.

Fair enough ... but I have to figure that if the Rockies put Tulowitzki out on the open market, they'll get a better offer than this.

Of course, you haven't mentioned which prospects you'd throw in to the deal. From the Rockies' standpoint, I would think that would be the more important part of the exchange.

[SamBam39]

I think the immediate benefit with Lowrie would be more consistent D.

[southcarolina]

Fair enough ... but I have to figure that if the Rockies put Tulowitzki out on the open market, they'll get a better offer than this.

Of course, you haven't mentioned which prospects you'd throw in to the deal. From the Rockies' standpoint, I would think that would be the more important part of the exchange.

Just a couple of caveats:

1) I dont actually think this trade will ever ever ever come to pass...i just like making shit up and then trying to defend it :)

2) I dont have any idea what he Rockies situation is. I know a couple of seasons ago they were trying pretty hard to unload Heltons contract. As of this morning they are 13.5 games out of first. Their starting pitching looks to be pretty awful with Jason Marquis being their ace. This is a team that is going nowhere anytime soon, and could use a reboot. Getting rid of Helton's contract 2.5 seasons early could go along way towards doing that.

3) The template for this trade would be the Beckett Lowell trade. The Rockies unload their albatross contract and include a youngish ML player as incentive. The difference is that Helton's contract is way bigger than Lowells was, and that as of today, Tulowitski is nowhere near the ML player Beckett was when the RedSox acquired him. So while the Sox had to give up Hanley and take on 2 years and 18 mil of Lowells contract to get Beckett, i dont think they would have to give up nearly as much for the pleasure of taking on Helton's 2 years and 36 mil. And Troy Tulowitski isnt Josh Beckett, circa 2005. He has plenty of upside, but isnt hitting much, and is owed 17 mil over the next three seasons. So he is much less incentive to take on Helton than Beckett was to take on Lowell. This deal right now, Helton and Tulo to Boston for prospects wouldnt require anyone named Buchholz, Bowden or Anderson IMO. I think you could build a package around a Bard/MDC type, add in one of the Sox many midlevel OF prospects, plus one of the A ball starting pitchers not named Casey Kelly and the deal is done.

If the Rockies just wanted to get the most prospects they could for Tulowitski, assuming they would even trade him in the first place, then of course they could do better. But there are only a couple of teams with the financial ability to take on Heltons contract as well as have the prospects to make the deal in the first place. The Yankees dont need a first baseman so taking on Heltons contract would be stupid. The Mets perhaps have the money, but they are pretty set at first and SS also. That leaves the RedSox. For the Rockies this deal would be purely a salary dump. But the RedSox cannot just take Tulowitski's and Helton's contracts without making room for them.

What would it take for the Sox to take on Helton and Tulo? Well they would have to clear some payroll room, as well as roster spots, namely Julio Lugo and Mike Lowell. My original thought was to include them in the trade with Colorado and add in a couple extra prospects, or one better prospect. Perhaps they could make a deal for these two to get rid of them. I have read rumors of the Mets interest in Lugo. I have read rumors that the Brewers might be interested in Lowell. Maybe the Rockies could be persuaded with extra bodies to take one or both of them I dont know. Its all a pipe dream anyway :)

[paperhanger]

Dump Lugo's sorry ass and his fielding too. His eyes show that he is empty. What a blank stare. Take the loss and dump at sea. Next road trip, open up the door and kick him OUT!

[Joolz]

Dump Lugo's sorry ass and his fielding too. His eyes show that he is empty. What a blank stare. Take the loss and dump at sea. Next road trip, open up the door and kick him OUT!

I dunno. *I think I would kinda miss those empty eyes.

1103


*I kid. I kid. :)

[sprocketboy]

Just a couple of caveats:

1) I dont actually think this trade will ever ever ever come to pass...i just like making shit up and then trying to defend it :)



I just thought this was worth reading a second time.

Sig material if I ever saw it. :jester: