Is Papelbon struggling this season?

[JBay44]

I'm just a n00b here, so I'm not sure if I'm breaking protocol. But I've watched the games, and while he is getting the job done (2.25 ERA, 14/15 in save opps.), he has been far from automatic this year. His walks are up, his .BAA is up, his WHIP is an unsightly 1.47 and his K/BB rate is the lowest it's been since he moved to the bullpen (2.33).

Since watching the games is the most important thing, let's look at that. He's stopped throwing his secondary pitches (split, slide-piece) and throws almost exclusively fastballs. He also is struggling to locate the fastball, which is theoretically his best pitch. He's walking guys at a much higher rate and giving up a fair amount of hard-hit balls. He has given up 3 HRs in 2 months...the most he's ever given up in any full season is 5. He's already thrown half as many pitches as he did all last season, and we're only at the 1/3rd marker.

So I ask you all, as a respectful rookie here...is he struggling this year? Are you concerned about him?

I know it's nitpicking and there are more glaring problems...I'm not suggesting a move, merely trying to gauge whether I'm overreacting or if others have noticed this.

[Mikiemo83]

1st off you are welcome to post this stuff - please do not hestitate


as for paps he is struggling a bit but I keep hearing he adjusted his delivery so maybe he is struggling to get comfortable

as for secondary pitches not being tossed, if he is indeed having issues with a new delivery that would explain both the lack of control of the fastball and the lack of confidence in the other stuff

[3 Point Stan]

As valid a question as you can ask.

He's been the cardiac kid, for sure. I think you're heading down the right road when you cite his abandonment of his secondary pitches. Major league hitters can hit your fastball, bro!

But I don't actually give it much thought with closers as their apt to fizzle out at a moment's notice. In Pap's case, I'm not overly concerned because he's managed to find it and get out of these jams. If that were not happening, I would be worried. But I think he's fine.

[taltos]

I almost get the feeling that he doesn't really concentrate until there is some pressure on him as in having baserunners. He has been so successful since becoming a closer that perhaps he needs a bit of a challenge. Somewhat off the wall idea but who knows.

[3 Point Stan]

I almost get the feeling that he doesn't really concentrate until there is some pressure on him as in having baserunners. He has been so successful since becoming a closer that perhaps he needs a bit of a challenge. Somewhat off the wall idea but who knows.
I think it's as legit a theory as any.

[southcarolina]

I have also read that he has been tinkering with his delivery, either because he is injured, or to avoid future injury. The game on Wednesday I think, some of his pitches were breaking in ways i have never ever seen them break.

[SamBam39]

It's a great question and quite topical. While paps has only blown one save so far this season he has been at times quite an adventure out there. I have read a few things where people are discussing whether or not his arm slot is lower than it has been in years past and they are guessing he might be injured.

I have read where people are saying he is not throwing the splitter anymore, which was his big out pitch. He is avoiding it to not get injured before he goes to free agency.

Bottom line he has walked a boat load more people this year than last. He is still getting the saves but he has not been lights out.

[steve1]

Is Papelbon struggling?

No. He is dominating. Compared to 99.9% of the major league pitchers.

Is Papelbon struggling?

Yes, when compared with the Papelbon of last season, and the previous season.

[southcarolina]

No. He is dominating. Compared to 99.9% of the major league pitchers.



Jonathan Papelbon ranks 165th in WHIP in the majors in 2009 for pitchers who have pitched at least 20 innings this season. One hunnerd an' sixxy fith. :holycrapemoticon:

There are 302 pitchers who have thrown 20 innings or more in the majors this season. So i'd say he is pitching better than....

*does the math...carry the 4...multiply by the hypoteneuse...divide by the square root of pi....*

about 45% of the pitchers out there this season.


Now...i know stats dont tell the whole story (Damn you NEM!!!!! Damn you to Hell!!!!) with releief pitchers, and 20 innings is a very small sample, but being ranked 165th in ANYTHING is clearly not dominating, compared to 99.9% of the pitchers in the majors.

[JBay44]

Is Papelbon struggling?

No. He is dominating. Compared to 99.9% of the major league pitchers.

Is Papelbon struggling?

Yes, when compared with the Papelbon of last season, and the previous season.


Well, that is the point of the thread. He hasn't looked like the Papelbon we all remember from 2006-08, thus my question...are you concerned?

[SamBam39]

My biggest concern would be he is hiding an injury and pitching to cover up that fact because he is in a contract year. If he is just experimenting with some different pitches or arm slot then I would say KNOCK IT OFF and pitch right. But I tend to be a bit emotional at times.

[JBay44]

My biggest concern would be he is hiding an injury and pitching to cover up that fact because he is in a contract year. If he is just experimenting with some different pitches or arm slot then I would say KNOCK IT OFF and pitch right. But I tend to be a bit emotional at times.

It's seemed like there is something going on with him for a few years, ever since they shut him down in 2006. Since that time, we've seen fewer & fewer splitters, he almost never pitches back-to-back games, and rarely is used as a multiple-inning weapon (which is something an elite relief pitcher should be able to do). The problem this season is, he's going out there needing 25-30 pitches to get through an inning, which effectively makes him unavailable the next night. I think that subluxated labrum issue they found a few years ago is partly responsible for the coddling.

The nice thing about this season is there are literally 3-4 other guys in the pen capable of closing on days he's unavailable to pitch in. But it makes you wonder how valuable he really is to this team the way he is performing right now.

[southcarolina]

The problem this season is, he's going out there needing 25-30 pitches to get through an inning, which effectively makes him unavailable the next night. I think that subluxated labrum issue they found a few years ago is partly responsible for the coddling.

The nice thing about this season is there are literally 3-4 other guys in the pen capable of closing on days he's unavailable to pitch in. But it makes you wonder how valuable he really is to this team the way he is performing right now.

Perhaps this is all by design, knowing that they can afford to let Papelbon's pitch count get up a little when he pitches because they dont need him to be "the guy" day in and day out. Maybe the tinkering with his mechanics is just a way to not overtax his arm and save it some for the playoffs. In other words maybe they feel that throwing a few extra less than max effort and/or "new mechanics" pitches per outing is less stressful on his arm than fewer max effort and/or "old mechanics" pitches. Knowing that they can use him tonight, and not need hom tomorrow would allow this. In the past it was necessary that he get in, get out, and do it as quickly as possible because it was 99% likely that he would have to do it again tomorrow. Now, he has the luxury of coming and wasting a few pitches, and/or pitching to contact.

[JBay44]

I think tonight will tell us a lot about whether or not this is the case.

[OBP]

I think tonight will tell us a lot about whether or not this is the case.

I have no faith whatsoever in his ability to hold a one-run lead, at this point. Hopefully, he'll prove me wrong.

[JBay44]

I have no faith whatsoever in his ability to hold a one-run lead, at this point. Hopefully, he'll prove me wrong.

I hope so too. We'll see...

[nomars_girl]

I have no faith whatsoever in his ability to hold a one-run lead, at this point. Hopefully, he'll prove me wrong.

Everyone pull out your lucky rabbit's foot.