2008 expectations vs. 2007 stats

[3 Point Stan]

It's human nature to set your forthcoming expectations of a player based on his previous year's output. For example:

Tim Wakefield won 17 games last year so fairly or unfairly, that's his benchmark for '08. Do you think he'll win 17 again? Since he hasn't in any other year of his career, history would indicate "no" but like anything, it's up for debate here if you feel otherwise.

Let's go through the roster and determine of we'll get the SAME, LESS, or MORE from our guys than we got last year. Here are my predictions:

Starting Pitchers:
Beckett - same
Daisuke - more
Buccholz - same
Schilling - less
Wakefield - less
Lester - same

Relief Pitchers:
Papelbon - same
Okajima - less
Timlin - less
Delcarmen - more
Hansen - same
Taverez - same

Position Players / DH:
Ortiz - same
Varitek - same
Mirabelli - less
Youkilis - same
Pedroia - less
Lugo - more
Lowell - less
Cora - same
Sean Casey - same
Manny - same
Drew - more
Ellsbury - less (over a projected full season)
Kielty - same

Thoughts?

[oldskool138]

Yeah you forgot your Adopt-A-Sox!!!

Ortiz - more

[3 Point Stan]

Yeah you forgot your Adopt-A-Sox!!!

Ortiz - more
Because I'm a...

http://i54.photobucket.com/albums/g118/Elvis7ing/handy%20pix/dickweed.gif

(edited above)

[nomars_girl]

I'm not sure what you mean by "same" for Buchholz and Lester. Neither was in the rotation for a full season last year - so in that sense, I would expect more from them. If you are projecting that they will have the same numbers projected over a full season, then I would say I actually expect less. Buchholz is not going to throw a no-hitter every third game and have a sub-2 ERA over a full season, for instance.

[3 Point Stan]

I'm not sure what you mean by "same" for Buchholz and Lester. Neither was in the rotation for a full season last year - so in that sense, I would expect more from them. If you are projecting that they will have the same numbers projected over a full season, then I would say I actually expect less. Buchholz is not going to throw a no-hitter every third game and have a sub-2 ERA over a full season, for instance.

Great point and I'm glad you brought those two guys to the discussion. The reason I assessed them as "same" is because I don't necessarily believe they'll both be in the rotation for a full season this year. Certainly they will see more action in '08 but I'd set the over/under for starts by each as follows:

Buchholz - 20
Lester - 25

Now that would be an 80% increase for Buchholz and more than 50% increase for Lester over '07. But in terms of my labeling them "same" it's not to say that I think we should expect sub-.200 ERA's, it's that I expect some positive contributions from both, but nothing that would make or break this season in eithers' absence.

Hope this makes sense!

[3 Point Stan]

Can't edit the above. Over/Under should be:

Buchholz - 15
Lester - 18

[oldskool138]

I'll throw Bartolo Colon in the mix (why the hell not)

O/U starts: 10

[dred]

I'm hoping to see much more production from JD Drew this year.

Varitek should put up better numbers too IMO.

I'd like to see more out of Wakefield and Schilling, but I'm not going to hold my breathe on that one.

[oldskool138]

I'd like to see more out of Wakefield and Schilling, but I'm not going to hold my breathe on that one.

17 wins? You can't ask for anything more than that from Wake. I see him winning 13-14 games.

[southcarolina]

17 wins? You can't ask for anything more than that from Wake. I see him winning 13-14 games.

Those 17 wins are offset by the presence of Doug Mirabelli.

[oldskool138]

Those 17 wins are offset by the presence of Doug Mirabelli.

Name me a team who's back-up catcher is as good as their starting catcher.

[southcarolina]

Name me a team who's back-up catcher is as good as their starting catcher.

I was being sarcastic :)

[oldskool138]

I was being sarcastic :)

Hard to tell when reading print. :D

[southcarolina]

Hard to tell when reading print. :D

A good rule of thumb is "southcarolina is always being sarcastic"

[3 Point Stan]

A good rule of thumb is "southcarolina is always being sarcastic"
you and your schtick!

[Red Machine]

I'm hoping to see much more production from JD Drew this year.

Varitek should put up better numbers too IMO.

I'd like to see more out of Wakefield and Schilling, but I'm not going to hold my breathe on that one.


JD Drew needs to start showing life this season, I think he will. I don't see how you can expect anything more from those 3 guys. Varitek has been on a decline, Schilling is just about done. Wakefield could possibly match that, but beat it? I seriously doubt it.

[fightingdoxies]

A good rule of thumb is "southcarolina is always being sarcastic"

are you being sarcastic about that? :smiley_towel:

[EverettsTheoryOfEvolution]

You want more than 16 wins out of Wakefield? Maybe we could get 20 HR out of Pedroia while we're at it. Any less and he's gone by the break. [/SC sarcastic schtick]