Going For It On 4th And 13 ???

[oldbagfan]

I realize that many of my comrades are still too annihilated to even begin to think about a post-mortem of the SB. I too have been unable to read or listen to any "national" media gloating or watch any replays of the game or even any single plays. But the feeling is slowly returning to my numbed out football heart and I actually kind of - well, not "enjoyed" really - managed to get through this article.

http://coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2155_Going_for_it_on_4th-and-13%3A_the_science.html

[Wandering Athol]

The writer is waaaay too optimistic in his "Go for a pass and try and get the first down" estimates. He is looking at regular season offensive statistics, skewed heavily by early blowouts, and inserting them into the Super Bowl, where Brady was hit or pressured on nearly 1/2 his attempts, and couldn't get off a long throw.

He estimates the Pats chances of completing that first down at 25%; a 70% chance of scoring a TD thereafter; and a 25% chance of scoring a FG thereafter. Given the way the Giants were playing, I would argue these percentages are unrealistic.

If he were to do it all over again (and assuming there's not some inside info on Gostkowski that we are unaware of), I really, really, really, really wonder if BB would do the same thing?

[3 Point Stan]

They should have attempted a FG. But I don't believe it should be examined as such one of the singuarly damning moments of the game as it seems to be.

At the time, the offense had still managed to penetrate into Giants territory 2 or 3 times so from a coaching perspective, there was reason to believe they weren't going to do this frequently throughout the game.

The Patriots DO often go for it on 4th down from that territory - however, I don't recall them going for it on many 4th & 13's.

One silver-lining is that I'm glad Gostkowski didn't gome in and miss that FG because had he, many a naive folk would be making him out to be the goat. Cuz that's how sports fans roll.

[Hawg73]

Belichick has coached a lot of ballgames here and my guess is that the number of major coaching decisions he has made that were questioned later are remarkably low.

I don't know the number, but I'm having a hard time remembering more than a few.

Reason being, when you win people don't question you much. He wins. Pete Carroll made a half dozen gaffes a game every game.

That said, it was a boneheaded decision. Our coaches thought we would get a certain coverage whereby the play had a good chance and NY crossed us up and was all over Gaffney like they knew our signals. They outfoxed us and the play had no chance.

The only way this makes sense is if Ghost was hurt and he didn't appear to be. It was the worst decision BB has made that I can recall, but I'd still take the guy any day of the week.

[grogsox]

A 49 yard FG is no Gimmee, and punting from there only nets maybe 20 yards unless you get lucky. Going for it was a reasonable thing to do. The play called before that play and that play both failed miserably however, which is why the Giants won the game on and off the field. I would have tried the FG, but I understand the reasoning behind going for it.