What about Schilling?

[kgsmith]

With Curt's contract up at the end of the year, and the sox having so many arms, both in the bigs, in the minors, and the soon to be free agents, what should the sox do with Schill? sign him to a one year contract? Let him go? I personally think its time for the bloody sock to hang up the cleats and retire.. especially if the the sox win the championship..

07 rotation?

1) beckett
2) diaske
3) lester
4) bucholtz
5) snyder / tavarez

or the revamped roster

1) johan santana
2) josh beckett
3) diaske
4) clay bucholtz
5) jon lester

:icon_supe :icon_supe :icon_supe :icon_fU:

[southcarolina]

With Curt's contract up at the end of the year, and the sox having so many arms, both in the bigs, in the minors, and the soon to be free agents, what should the sox do with Schill? sign him to a one year contract? Let him go? I personally think its time for the bloody sock to hang up the cleats and retire.. especially if the the sox win the championship..

07 rotation?

1) beckett
2) diaske
3) lester
4) bucholtz
5) snyder / tavarez

or the revamped roster

1) johan santana
2) josh beckett
3) diaske
4) clay bucholtz
5) jon lester



Any trade garnering the RedSox Johan Santana would most likely begin at Lester AND Buchholz (plus some). After getting scooped on Beckett and Matsuzaka, the Yankees will unload the farm for him, and that makes it more expensive for everyone else. Besides, the Twins arent going to let him walk. If the Sox were able to pull it off though.....



:icon_pray

Santana, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling (at Wakefield money) and whoever.

:icon_pray :icon_pray

[luso2kx]

I hope the Blogger isn't back next season. Age is catching up to him this year and I don't want to see what another year would do to that, especially not at the $10million+ he's asking for.

As for Wakefield, no. I don't want to endure 1 more season with that Italian sidekick of his playing every 5 days. Offer Wakefield a coaching job.

- Sign Gagne to an extension
- Move Papelbon to the rotation (where he should be)
- Bring up Kottaras or get another, DECENT backup catcher

Beckett
Matsuzaka
Lester
Papelbon
Buchholz

Lock it in and don't touch a thing.

[Mikiemo83]

wake will be back, the difference is he gets all the decisions but 13 wins from number 5 on your staff is great and it is only the beginning of August - look past this Wake stuff- if the bats were awake he would have a few more wins and be loved.

Paps is a closer - no movement for him and I feel Gagne is going back to the Rangers as their closer.

yes find a knuckleball catcher, see how Curt from the car finishes up the season 1st before closing the door all the way and leave Paps in his happy place
http://www.filmsoc.warwick.ac.uk/img/allnighter/HappyGilmore2.jpg

[oldskool138]

yes find a knuckleball catcher, see how Curt from the car finishes up the season 1st before closing the door all the way and leave Paps in his happy place

Is it just me or does it seem like Paps kind of mails it in when facing a crap team? Did you see his blown save against the Devil Dogs? That crazy glare he gets in his eyes just wasn't there...then he tried to groove a crappy split over the plate and it got bombed.

He's also been walking a ton of guys lately...He's one of the best closers in the game but he's been shaky lately.

[Mikiemo83]

not enough action, too many games decided before the 9th either way

[EverettsTheoryOfEvolution]

Before the season, I was supporting the idea of giving Schill his extension. I freely admit I was wrong about that. I really don't think he has anything left in the tank. Who is going to be on the FA market this winter?

[Mikiemo83]

SOME ARE SIGNED BUT A QUICK LIST

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2006/10/2008_mlb_free_a.html

Updated 3-2-07
1. John Smoltz (41)
2. Carlos Zambrano (27)
3. Joe Nathan (33)
4. Mariano Rivera (38)
5. Jorge Posada (36)
6. Curt Schilling (41)
7. Bobby Abreu (34)
8. Ichiro Suzuki (34)
9. Andruw Jones (31)
10. Carlos Guillen (32)
11. Jeff Kent (40)
12. Mike Lowell (34)
13. Jason Jennings (29)
14. Jake Westbrook (30)
15. Ivan Rodriguez (36)
16. Freddy Garcia (32)
17. Kenny Rogers (43)
18. Torii Hunter (32)
19. Jason Isringhausen (35)
20. Omar Vizquel (41)
21. Marcus Giles (30)
22. Eric Byrnes (32)
23. Paul Lo Duca (36)
24. Bob Wickman (39)
25. Corey Patterson (28)
26. Adam Dunn (28)
27. Scott Linebrink (31)
28. Michael Barrett (31)
29. Milton Bradley (30)
30. Jon Lieber (38)
31. David Eckstein (33)
32. Aaron Rowand (30)
33. Juan Uribe (29)
34. Bartolo Colon (35)

[EverettsTheoryOfEvolution]

SOME ARE SIGNED BUT A QUICK LIST

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2006/10/2008_mlb_free_a.html

Updated 3-2-07
1. John Smoltz (41)
2. Carlos Zambrano (27)
3. Joe Nathan (33)
4. Mariano Rivera (38)
5. Jorge Posada (36)
6. Curt Schilling (41)
7. Bobby Abreu (34)
8. Ichiro Suzuki (34)
9. Andruw Jones (31)
10. Carlos Guillen (32)
11. Jeff Kent (40)
12. Mike Lowell (34)
13. Jason Jennings (29)
14. Jake Westbrook (30)
15. Ivan Rodriguez (36)
16. Freddy Garcia (32)
17. Kenny Rogers (43)
18. Torii Hunter (32)
19. Jason Isringhausen (35)
20. Omar Vizquel (41)
21. Marcus Giles (30)
22. Eric Byrnes (32)
23. Paul Lo Duca (36)
24. Bob Wickman (39)
25. Corey Patterson (28)
26. Adam Dunn (28)
27. Scott Linebrink (31)
28. Michael Barrett (31)
29. Milton Bradley (30)
30. Jon Lieber (38)
31. David Eckstein (33)
32. Aaron Rowand (30)
33. Juan Uribe (29)
34. Bartolo Colon (35)


Hmmmm.....what does anyone think about Zambrano?

[southcarolina]

Hmmmm.....what does anyone think about Zambrano?


That he is a nutcase.


The truly scary thing about that list is that Mike Lowell is the only notable third baseman. Imagine if some other club threw a 4 year 60 million dollar contract at him...what would the Sox do? Yooks to third and sign Adam Dunn? Is there anyone at all in the minors thats even close to being major league ready that can play first or third? or would the Sox be forced to trade prospects for some 2nd rate fill in corner infielder?

Of course this is all assuming that ARawd stays in NY or signs elsewhere :)

[Mikiemo83]

That he is a nutcase.


The truly scary thing about that list is that Mike Lowell is the only notable third baseman. Imagine if some other club threw a 4 year 60 million dollar contract at him...what would the Sox do? Yooks to third and sign Adam Dunn? Is there anyone at all in the minors thats even close to being major league ready that can play first or third? or would the Sox be forced to trade prospects for some 2nd rate fill in corner infielder?

Of course this is all assuming that ARawd stays in NY or signs elsewhere :)Hinske?




ARod will get his but that someone throw 4-$60 could be your Yankee front office

[EverettsTheoryOfEvolution]

That he is a nutcase.




Perfect,sign him up!

[luso2kx]

wake will be back, the difference is he gets all the decisions but 13 wins from number 5 on your staff is great and it is only the beginning of August - look past this Wake stuff- if the bats were awake he would have a few more wins and be loved.

Paps is a closer - no movement for him and I feel Gagne is going back to the Rangers as their closer.Both of those points are factually untrue.

For starters, Wakefield is the WORST example of a .500 pitcher in the Majors. Like I've said a million friggin times: he's either going to shut out an opposing lineup OR get lit up in 3 innings. 11 of his 24 starts he has given up 4 or more earned runs. In 5 of those 11 starts he gave up 6 or more earned runs. And the WORST part? He requires one of the WORST CATHERS IN THE MAJORS to catch him every 5 days, which immediately gives us a hole in the lineup. HE BETTER NOT BE HERE NEXT YEAR! Screw "loyalty", this team needs improvement. Offer Wake a coaching job or release him and send that caddy of his packing too.

And Papelbon is a starter. He was a starter his entire minor league career with similar numbers that Buchholz is having now, and his 3 MLB starts were solid and showed improvement with each passing start. Some want to make the comparison to Rivera, but aside from the fact that Rivera is more durable as a reliever than Papelbon will EVER be, Rivera SUCKED as a starter, Papelbon didn't.

I don't give a rat's ass what Papelbon's "happy place" is, he's not a reliever. And, if he's closing because "he asked", then Tito Gaston should be fired for incompetence. How in the hell does a guy who had a whole YEAR AND A HALF of Major League experience suddenly have carte blance to overrule management? I don't buy that for a second.

[Mikiemo83]

I see wake as a pitcher on the level of most 5th starters (he isn't the No.4) you hope he takes it into the 6/7 innings, gives you a chance to win and stays in a game to eat up innings resting the Bullpen for the top 3 arms turn in the rotation. so you don't like him but he serves a purpose over a 163 game season - compare him to other no. 5 pitchers not to Beckett or DiceK


as for Paps, he likes being the closer, he si very goodat it, top 3 in the league right now. the thing is like a Michael Vick dog he has tasted the rush of coming into a game and gets going off that. that rush is missing as a starter where the need for control over the rush is required... he lost that last season and please do not tell me you believed for one second this spring training he as going to start, if he was why was he always coming into a game after Wake, warming up like a RP

the clues were out there, we just missed them

and do not forget he was a closer when drafted
Papelbon was a closer at Mississippi State University. He had a 9-6 record, 13 saves, and 2.90 ERA in his three years on the team.

[luso2kx]

I see wake as a pitcher on the level of most 5th starters (he isn't the No.4) you hope he takes it into the 6/7 innings, gives you a chance to win and stays in a game to eat up innings resting the Bullpen for the top 3 arms turn in the rotation. so you don't like him but he serves a purpose over a 163 game season - compare him to other no. 5 pitchers not to Beckett or DiceK
Buchholz will be here next year, Lester is already here. If they finally come to their senses and put Papelbon back in the rotation, then there's no need whatsoever to keep Wakefield.

I HATE the "5th starter" logic. This isn't the Blue Jays or the A's or the Royals, where you end up being "satisified" to have a 4.70-5.00 ERA guy in the 5th spot. We have the money, the resources and the ability to do better than that.


as for Paps, he likes being the closer, he si very goodat it, top 3 in the league right now. the thing is like a Michael Vick dog he has tasted the rush of coming into a game and gets going off that. that rush is missing as a starter where the need for control over the rush is required... he lost that last season and please do not tell me you believed for one second this spring training he as going to start, if he was why was he always coming into a game after Wake, warming up like a RP
What he "wants" is completely and totally irrelevant. What the team NEEDS him to do is start. And he's been one of the LEAST USED closers in the Majors (39.2ip, projected to throw 54ip). Plus, we now have Gagne, his role as a closer has become even more irrelevant.

It's really simple:

Papelbon: "I really want to close"
Tito: "That's great, however we really need you to start, so we're going to have you in the rotation and you can then get 4 to 5 straight days off and work on the conditioning program the doctors have mapped out for you."

the clues were out there, we just missed them

and do not forget he was a closer when drafted
Papelbon was a closer at Mississippi State University. He had a 9-6 record, 13 saves, and 2.90 ERA in his three years on the team.
And, in the minors, he started 48 games, posted a 19-13 record with a 3.05 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and struck out 299 in 277 innings pitched.

What's your point?

Also, when he started those 48 games, he NEVER had arm problems. Suddenly he's converted to a closer in 2006, and he was DL'ed by August. Think about that one for a while.

[patfan64]

That he is a nutcase.


The truly scary thing about that list is that Mike Lowell is the only notable third baseman. Imagine if some other club threw a 4 year 60 million dollar contract at him...what would the Sox do? Yooks to third and sign Adam Dunn? Is there anyone at all in the minors thats even close to being major league ready that can play first or third? or would the Sox be forced to trade prospects for some 2nd rate fill in corner infielder?

Of course this is all assuming that ARawd stays in NY or signs elsewhere :)

Adam Dunn is WMP with a little more pop. He bats a consistent .230 with a very low OB%.

Also, isn't Johan Santana signed through 2008? He's not coming to Boston any time soon.

[luso2kx]

Also, isn't Johan Santana signed through 2008? He's not coming to Boston any time soon.Santana apparenly expressed interest in being traded.

However, if he were dealt, say bye bye to Buchholz, Ellsbury, and maybe a couple more major leaguers.

[Mikiemo83]

Also, when he started those 48 games, he NEVER had arm problems. Suddenly he's converted to a closer in 2006, and he was DL'ed by August. Think about that one for a while.he was on a innings limit in the minors and shut down for the most part by mid August - that is why it wasn't an issue



Gagne is only signed for the rest of the season, I doubt he will re-sign here regardless if Paps moves as you suggest because he knows Pap can take over the role if he slumps or is injured and he won't get it back.

and please do not claim the closer role is not important again, it is very important as evident by the fact the Sox have 2 established closer on their staff


Paps innings pitched has more to do with the strength of the staff on a whole, not a refusal to pitch him. He is not sharp in games such as Tampa last week because he was too rested. he no longer needs to go more than one inning because the arms in the 7th and 8th are good this season


when the starters are holding teams to 3 runs and you have the 5th most productive offense in the league, a team will tend to have big leads and not need to pitch the closer 60-70 times a season but 50-60 innings because the whole Bullpen is eating up the innings not 2 guys, last season who else did the sox have to toss the 8th?

[southcarolina]

Adam Dunn is WMP with a little more pop. He bats a consistent .230 with a very low OB%.

Also, isn't Johan Santana signed through 2008? He's not coming to Boston any time soon.


I wasnt throwing out the Adam Dunn idea as a good one :)


I heard on the radio that there is some speculation that if the Twins cant extend Santana by the end of this season, they MIGHT try to trade him this offseason, under the logic that the Twins CANNOT let him walk at the end of next season and get nothing but a draft pick for him. Also, he apparently was not happy about Castillo getting traded, saying,

"I'm not surprised. That's exactly how they are. That's why we're never going to go beyond where we've gone," Santana told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. "You always talk about future, future. ... But if you only worry about the future, then I guess a lot of us won't be part of it.
"Why waste time when you're talking about something that's always going to be like that? It's never going to be beyond this point. It doesn't make any sense for me to be here, you know?"

http://www.southcoasttoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070806/SPORTS/708060360

And of course, if he were to be traded, who would make the trade? Teams with the prospects the Twins want, and the money to resign Santana long term: The RedSox, Spankees, Mets, etc.

[southcarolina]

Jon Papelbon wins 43% of his 48 minor and 3 major league starts , and he is a lock for the rotation.

Wakefield wins 56% of his starts this season and he should be run out of town.


I think i understand now.

[luso2kx]

Jon Papelbon wins 43% of his 48 minor and 3 major league starts , and he is a lock for the rotation.

Wakefield wins 56% of his starts this season and he should be run out of town.


I think i understand now.Yeah, because wins are the true measure of a pitcher. Not like Wakefield has an ERA nearing 5, a WHIP nearing 1.4, or that he needs one of the worst catchers in the Majors to catch him in every start. And let's not notice Papelbon's ERA that's just slightly over 3 and a WHIP just slightly over 1 while in the minors...

it's ALL about the wins...

[Mikiemo83]

it's ALL about the wins...if I asked a certain football coach in Foxboro, I think he would say "yeah it is all about wins"

[oldskool138]

if I asked a certain football coach in Foxboro, I think he would say "yeah it is all about wins"

True, true...I mean, if Wake sucked that badly or was hurting the team, he'd be out of a job. In Bill I Trust!

[luso2kx]

if I asked a certain football coach in Foxboro, I think he would say "yeah it is all about wins"Yeah, except no football player has a personal W/L record. We're talking personal record, not team acheivments.

Evaluating a pitcher based by their win total is about as useless as evaluating a batter by how many RBI he has. Both stats are more of a mark of the team's success, not the player's.

[Mikiemo83]

True, true...I mean, if Wake sucked that badly or was hurting the team, he'd be out of a job. In Bill I Trust!I am sure he would dial up Theo and the trio and say cut his ass

[luso2kx]

True, true...I mean, if Wake sucked that badly or was hurting the team, he'd be out of a job. In Bill I Trust!So having his caddy in the lineup every 5 days doesn't hurt us?

[oldskool138]

So having his caddy in the lineup every 5 days doesn't hurt us?

Didn't Doug Mirabelli have a 2-run homer last night? ;)

[Mikiemo83]

Yeah, except no football player has a personal W/L record. We're talking personal record, not team acheivments. well you keep hearing about a QB's record in close games or playoff games so in a way they do - Montana was a winner but was not as physically gifted as Marino yet a better QB because he won - wake is like Trent Dilfer - a winner who does it ugly

Evaluating a pitcher based by their win total is about as useless as evaluating a batter by how many RBI he has. Both stats are more of a mark of the team's success, not the player's.no RBI's are a good mark if broken down to when they happen - Papi is a star because he hit well when they counted driving in runs much like montana brought his team back and that is why ARod is not considered a clutch player.

Wake has pitched well at times remember the 03 series - yeah he let up the HR but he also got them to that point

[Mikiemo83]

Didn't Doug Mirabelli have a 2-run homer last night? ;)
and the game prior did well with a dinger

[luso2kx]

Didn't Doug Mirabelli have a 2-run homer last night? ;)Yeah, he's great in garbage time. Just don't expect dick from him when it actually matters.

Bad enough we have WMP with a hole in his bat. We are literally forced to have the Italian Stallion on the lineup once every 5 days because Wakefield doesn't want to have anyone else catching for him (do you not remember the police escort this clown got after we traded 2 good players for him?).

[oldskool138]

Wake has pitched well at times remember the 03 series - yeah he let up the HR but he also got them to that point

Plus, he never should have pitched in Game 7 either...Damn you, Grady!!!

[southcarolina]

Yeah, because wins are the true measure of a pitcher. Not like Wakefield has an ERA nearing 5, a WHIP nearing 1.4, or that he needs one of the worst catchers in the Majors to catch him in every start. And let's not notice Papelbon's ERA that's just slightly over 3 and a WHIP just slightly over 1 while in the minors...

it's ALL about the wins...


Having a good WHIP doesnt win a championship. Wins are the only stat that matters to the team. If you want to use WHIP to determine who you cut off this team, the line starts behind Curt Schilling, Jon Lester, and Kyle Snyder. OK and smal sample size on Lester and Snyder, but seriously look at Schillings stats.

Schilling:
6-5, 4.31 ERA 1.37 WHIP, 6.82 k/9, 10.5 hits/9, .326 OBA, .465 SLG

Wakefield
13-10 4.81 ERA 1.36 WHIP, 5.12 k/9, 9.04 hits/9 .327 OBA, .426 SLG


Maybe my rose colored glasses are just superglued to my head, but i dont see where its clear cut that Schilling is having a better season that Wakefield. And if he isnt even the worst starting pitcher on his team, how can anyone make a case for him being gone?


Here is a list that i blatently stole from another site, and a poster named Matt1901. It was posted July 28th, so the stats are a bit dated, but probably not too much. His post (in italics)


Here is every American League teams' top five starters, based on Games Started:


YANKEES (2)
Andy Pettitte 4.11
Chien-Ming Wang 3.57
Mike Mussina 4.77
Kei Igawa 6.79
Roger Clemens 3.72


BLUE JAYS (1)
Roy Halladay 4.15
A.J. Burnett 4.31
Dustin McGowan 4.45
Shaun Marcum 3.87
Josh Towers 5.08


ORIOLES (2)
Erik Bedard 3.05
Daniel Cabrera 5.04
Steve Trachsel 5.26
Jeremy Guthrie 2.89
Brian Burres 4.33


DEVIL RAYS (3)
Scott Kazmir 4.02
James Shields 4.44
Edwin Jackson 7.00
Jae Weong Seo 8.13
A. Sonnanstine 5.57


TIGERS (2)
J. Verlander 3.43
J. Bonderman 3.69
Nate Robertson 5.08
Chad Durbin 4.45
Mike Maroth 5.06


INDIANS (2)
C.C. Sabathia 3.70
Fausto Carmona 3.31
Paul Byrd 4.40
Cliff Lee 6.38
Jeremy Sowers 6.93


TWINS (4)
Boof Bonser 4.73
Johan Santana 2.94
Carlos Silva 4.76
Scott Baker 5.30
Sidney Ponson 6.93


WHITE SOX (2)
Jon Garland 4.12
Mark Buehrle 3.23
Jose Contreras 6.22
Javier Vazquez 3.71
John Danks 4.83


ROAYLS (3)
Gil Meche 3.76
Odalis Perez 5.80
J. de la Rosa 5.35
Brian Bannister 3.42
Scott Elarton 10.46


ANGELS (2)
John Lackey 3.27
Kelvim Escobar 2.91
Ervin Santana 6.22
Jered Weaver 3.68
Bartolo Colon 6.72


MARINERS (2)
Miguel Batista 4.48
Jarrod Washburn 4.05
Felix Hernandez 3.85
Jeff Weaver 5.96
Cha Seung Baek 5.74


ATHLETICS (0)
Joe Blanton 3.69
Danny Haren 2.42
Chad Gaudin 3.66
Joe Kennedy 4.33
Lenny DiNardo 2.41


RANGERS (5)
Robinson Tejeda 6.61
Kameron Loe 5.59
Kevin Millwood 5.56
B. McCarthy 5.52
Vicente Padilla 6.69

Every team in the AL has at least one pitcher with a worse ERA than Tim Wakefield. Im not saying this makes Wakefield Cy Young, just that assembling a rotation with 5 guys all who have "low" ERAs is damn difficult. Wakefield provides value to this team due to his durability and rubber arm. I know he looked bad last night, but LA is a VERY good offensive club.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

[southcarolina]

Yeah, he's great in garbage time. Just don't expect dick from him when it actually matters.

Bad enough we have WMP with a hole in his bat. We are literally forced to have the Italian Stallion on the lineup once every 5 days because Wakefield doesn't want to have anyone else catching for him (do you not remember the police escort this clown got after we traded 2 good players for him?).


I agree that on the whole Miribelli has been an anchor this season, and hopefully the FO can find someone better next season, but give the guy his due: His HR last night put the Sox ahead, and the HR vs baltimore occurred when it was 1-0. It was hardly garbage time for either of these.

[luso2kx]

Having a good WHIP doesnt win a championship. Wins are the only stat that matters to the team.Take a long, hard look at what I just put in bold and realize why I say that wins and losses are rather worthless in evaulating a starting pitcher.

If you want to use WHIP to determine who you cut off this team, the line starts behind Curt Schilling, Jon Lester, and Kyle Snyder.Yeah, because we can discard ERA, K/9, BAA and OPS against as well...

OK and smal sample size on Lester and Snyder, but seriously look at Schillings stats.

Schilling:
6-5, 4.31 ERA 1.37 WHIP, 6.82 k/9, 10.5 hits/9, .326 OBA, .465 SLG

Wakefield
13-10 4.81 ERA 1.36 WHIP, 5.12 k/9, 9.04 hits/9 .327 OBA, .426 SLG


Maybe my rose colored glasses are just superglued to my head, but i dont see where its clear cut that Schilling is having a better season that Wakefield. And if he isnt even the worst starting pitcher on his team, how can anyone make a case for him being gone?Are you saying this as if I WANT to see Schilling here next year? You're barking up the wrong tree.

Schilling's not worth the clownish extension he asked for and we have better options than Wakefield.


Here is a list that i blatently stole from another site, and a poster named Matt1901. It was posted July 28th, so the stats are a bit dated, but probably not too much. His post (in italics)


Here is every American League teams' top five starters, based on Games Started:Cut this part out. Partly because it was too long and another part because it was totally irrelevant to the topic at hand since we're looking at what options we have ON OUR TEAM. And yes, there are better options to start than Wakefield, but most don't want to lose that 9th inning "adrenaline rush" when Wild Thing starts playing.


Every team in the AL has at least one pitcher with a worse ERA than Tim Wakefield. Im not saying this makes Wakefield Cy Young, just that assembling a rotation with 5 guys all who have "low" ERAs is damn difficult. Wakefield provides value to this team due to his durability and rubber arm. I know he looked bad last night, but LA is a VERY good offensive club.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->Why do people make excuses for him and Tavarez? I mean, I know Wake is a good guy but he's no longer a vital element to this rotation. This is the same team that had Gabbard winning 4 games with 1 CGSO. This team also has a guy who has the ability to start and win, but is being underused as a closer.

[EverettsTheoryOfEvolution]

I've never bought into the "SOSH-esque" hysteria wherein every single player on the team has to be a five star player or else they are useless and holding everyone back. That's the way the Yanks build a team, and it is extremely expensive, depletes the farm system, and still only gives mixed results.

IMO, if your fifth starter is winning more games then he's losing, then your happy (and yes, the wins are what count. He's not pitching in a vacuum, or in an "adjusted" ballpark, he's pitching for the Red Sox. If he is winning in the situation in which he's been put, then what does WHIP or ERA or anything else matter?) On top of that, he's cheap, willing to play whatever role is asked of him, has a rubber arm (for someone so old), and the club can do pretty much whatever they want with him. 'Belli is a drawback, but not deal breaker. I believe that another catcher could, indeed, learn to catch a knuckler, and Bard should've been given more time (or been better prepared in the preseason)

[luso2kx]

I agree that on the whole Miribelli has been an anchor this season, and hopefully the FO can find someone better next season, but give the guy his due: His HR last night put the Sox ahead, and the HR vs baltimore occurred when it was 1-0. It was hardly garbage time for either of these.In order for Mirabelli to go, Wakefield HAS to go as well. Wakes has made it perfectly clear that he won't accept someone else catching him now. We dealt away Josh Bard (and even threw in Cla Meredith) just because of that.

And I'll give Mirabelli "his due" the moment he climbs into, at least the upper 50's among all MLB catchers in his offensive stats.

[luso2kx]

I've never bought into the "SOSH-esque" hysteria wherein every single player on the team has to be a five star player or else they are useless and holding everyone back. That's the way the Yanks build a team, and it is extremely expensive, depletes the farm system, and still only gives mixed results. That's not how the Yankees do it. They do it by trying to buy as many "star" vets to fill out the rotation.

In the Sox case, aside from guys like Matsuzaka, Beckett and Lester, we also have Papelbon and, soon to be, Buchholz. All except the first 2 were home grown and all capable of pitching very well (I know, "Buchholz never pitched in the majors". But he's succeeded at every level without any need to adjust. I find it hard to believe he'll tank in the bigs now).

The question isn't "who can we get that can be best for our rotation", it's "who do we have RIGHT NOW that's best for our rotation" and, if you were to rank the options, Wakefield would not be in the top 5.

IMO, if your fifth starter is winning more games then he's losing, then your happy (and yes, the wins are what count. He's not pitching in a vacuum, or in an "adjusted" ballpark, he's pitching for the Red Sox. If he is winning in the situation in which he's been put, then what does WHIP or ERA or anything else matter?)So, if the pitcher goes 8ip and gives up 3h and 2er and loses in a 2-1 game, he's WORSE than a guy that goes 5ip and gives up 10h and 6er in a 12-6 win?

That really doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

On top of that, he's cheap, willing to play whatever role is asked of him, has a rubber arm (for someone so old), and the club can do pretty much whatever they want with him.Except he's not as "rubbery" as he once was. You have to cut him loose at some point.

'Belli is a drawback, but not deal breaker. I believe that another catcher could, indeed, learn to catch a knuckler, and Bard should've been given more time (or been better prepared in the preseason)Not only did we deal Bard for Mirabelli, but we threw Cla Meredith in the deal as well. We also sent a POLICE ESCORT to pick up Mirabelli.

You still think that goombah isn't a deal breaker in keeping Wakefield? Wakefield has already hinted that he would essentially retire the moment Mirabelli is not on the team anymore.

[Mikiemo83]

so who closes for you next year with Paps in the rotation?

and will he be on his Minor league inning watch as a starter, same with Buckholts who is most likeely going to be shut down at 150 innings


as a matter of fact the whole bullpen will need to pitch more innings next year with that rotation - after Beckett and Dice-K who has lasted a whole season in the majors as a starter?

[luso2kx]

so who closes for you next year with Paps in the rotation?Dear God. Not this again. Why is this role more important than having a solid starter?

Okajima has a WHIP under 1 and an ERA of exactly 1. Dunno, for some reason, I don't think he'd be a bad option to pitch the 9th inning.

And, if Theo is smart enough, he'd sign Gagne to an extension. Suddenly, you have 2 options.

and will he be on his Minor league inning watch as a starter, same with Buckholts who is most likeely going to be shut down at 150 inningsAnd how many innings does Tavarbage have? And how would this suddenly be a handicapp?

And this is under the assumption that neither of them wouldn't spend some time playing winter ball or spend time working on stretching themselves or having workout plans that will allow them to be ready come Spring Training.


as a matter of fact the whole bullpen will need to pitch more innings next year with that rotation - after Beckett and Dice-K who has lasted a whole season in the majors as a starter?Already answered.

[southcarolina]

Take a long, hard look at what I just put in bold and realize why I say that wins and losses are rather worthless in evaulating a starting pitcher.

Then im afraid that i am at a loss to understand why you hate Tim Wakefield so much. If wins are not the true measure of a pitcher than what is? If a picher has good peripheral stats, but is 0-10 is that "good" . Would you be railing for that pitcher's ouster based on his win total? Or would you be arguing that he should be given more rope, because eventually he'll turn around. I know this is all hypothetical, and really doesnt matter to the argument at hand, but im trying to understand your dislike of Wakefield. I honestly think you just dont like him based on some gut feeling you have. And your utter hatred of the Italian Doug Miribelli.


Yeah, because we can discard ERA, K/9, BAA and OPS against as well...

Again if a pitcher was in the "good" range for all these stats, but still had a losing record, would that be ok? Me, i'd rather ahve a pitcher with a good record and bad peripherals, than vice versa. I dont really care why a pitcher wins, just THAT he wins.



Are you saying this as if I WANT to see Schilling here next year? You're barking up the wrong tree.

Schilling's not worth the clownish extension he asked for and we have better options than Wakefield.

Agreed


Cut this part out. Partly because it was too long and another part because it was totally irrelevant to the topic at hand since we're looking at what options we have ON OUR TEAM. And yes, there are better options to start than Wakefield, but most don't want to lose that 9th inning "adrenaline rush" when Wild Thing starts playing.

Even if i supportrd this idea, and i dont, Papelbon cant fill the slot of Wakefield AND Schilling. As i posted before i dont think its clear cut at all that Schilling is having a better season than Wakefield. So why arent you arguing that Papelbon should be taking Schills spot? I think its because you just dont like Wakefield, and the Italian Doug Miribelli. And while its totlally your perrogative to hate whomever you choose, the fact is that when it comes to Wakes and the Italian Doug Miribelli, they can do no right in your eyes. 13 wins? Wins are overrated and run support. Better ERA than half the starters in the AL? What goes on other teams is irrelevant. Same peripherals than another starter on his own team? Well i want him gone too (although i must have missed all the "I Want Schiilling Gone Now" threads you started)


Why do people make excuses for him and Tavarez? I mean, I know Wake is a good guy but he's no longer a vital element to this rotation. This is the same team that had Gabbard winning 4 games with 1 CGSO. This team also has a guy who has the ability to start and win, but is being underused as a closer.

We "make excuses" for him because we believe he is a vital element to this team. His value is that he doesnt get hurt, he has a rubber arm , he is cheap, and he an effective starter, at times. Is he maddeningly inconsistant? Sure. But at least with being inconsistant, there are some peaks. With other pitchers, Schilling to name one, there have been precious few peaks lately. Gabbard and Papelbon as starter are unknowns, as much as you like to think otherwise. The world is filled with guys that pitched well in their first handful of starts and then fell off the face of the earth.

[Mikiemo83]

the closer is important because when you don't have a dependable one you are screwed - remember a little experiment called Closer by Committee? I do and it failed miserably

why compare them to rubber armed Tavares or Wake, both of which can pitch all night if need be - Paps and Buckholts are hard throwing guys who tend to wear down more than Junk pitchers and again have never tossed 200 innings in a year -


why rob from the pen to feed the starters - Paps is happy closing, prefers it by all accounts yet you want to take him out of the role, place a junk throwing lefty into it and see how it works out -

why not keep Paps in the closing role which sets Oki into his role as 7/8th inning pitcher while making the staff

Beckett, DiceK, Lester, Buckholts, Wake (with a different catcher - hell call up Cash from Pawtucket who catches Zink) with Paps, Oki, Delcarmen, Snyder, Lopez and Donnelly

sounds a lot better than

Beckett, DiceK, Lester, Buckholts, Paps, with Oki, Delcarmen, Snyder, Lopez, Timlin and Donnelly

[southcarolina]

Dear God. Not this again. Why is this role more important than having a solid starter?

Okajima has a WHIP under 1 and an ERA of exactly 1. Dunno, for some reason, I don't think he'd be a bad option to pitch the 9th inning.

And, if Theo is smart enough, he'd sign Gagne to an extension. Suddenly, you have 2 options.


Wait are we arguing about THIS season, or next season?

Becasue if your implying that the FO should have somehow known that the journeyman japanese import Okajima would somehow be this lights out in his role this season, then you ARE on drugs.

Next season, if it works out that way, i have no issues with Papelbon as a starter, because youre right Okajima could probably do the job. And resigning Gagne would only bolster that. But by the time Okajima had revealed himself to be as good as he has been, it was already too late to turn Paps into a strater this season.

[luso2kx]

Then im afraid that i am at a loss to understand why you hate Tim Wakefield so much. If wins are not the true measure of a pitcher than what is? If a picher has good peripheral stats, but is 0-10 is that "good" . Would you be railing for that pitcher's ouster based on his win total? Or would you be arguing that he should be given more rope, because eventually he'll turn around. I know this is all hypothetical, and really doesnt matter to the argument at hand, but im trying to understand your dislike of Wakefield. I honestly think you just dont like him based on some gut feeling you have. And your utter hatred of the Italian Doug Miribelli.If a starter goes 0-10 with an ERA of around 3.20 and a WHIP of 1.10, then only a fool would "rail" on him. Common sense would say that the poor bastard is on a team that has a totally inept offense.

The peripheral stats such as ERA, WHIP, BAA, K/9, OPS against, etc... measure the pitcher as an INDIVIDUAL. If those stats are good, then the wins SHOULD come naturally, provided he's pitching for a team that doesn't have a pathetic offense.

On the other end, if a pitcher has amassed 17 wins in a season but has an ERA of 4.90 or 5.00 and a WHIP of 1.65, that means that the ONLY reason he won those 17 games was because he pitched for a team that was putting up runs by the boatload.

And my "utter hatred" for Mirabelli has more to do for the fact that he has been at or under .200 for the past 2 seasons, he's slower than a sea slug and he couldn't throw out an 80 year old with a walker. That's why I have this "utter hatred" for him.

[Mikiemo83]

signing Mirabelli to .75 million and Wake to 4 million for a potential 17 game winner is pretty cheap

imagine wake with 5 more wins an 18 game winner - how many were there last year in all of Baseball? I can't remember, no one in the NL

[southcarolina]

If a starter goes 0-10 with an ERA of around 3.20 and a WHIP of 1.10, then only a fool would "rail" on him. Common sense would say that the poor bastard is on a team that has a totally inept offense.

The peripheral stats such as ERA, WHIP, BAA, K/9, OPS against, etc... measure the pitcher as an INDIVIDUAL. If those stats are good, then the wins SHOULD come naturally, provided he's pitching for a team that doesn't have a pathetic offense.

On the other end, if a pitcher has amassed 17 wins in a season but has an ERA of 4.90 or 5.00 and a WHIP of 1.65, that means that the ONLY reason he won those 17 games was because he pitched for a team that was putting up runs by the boatload.

And my "utter hatred" for Mirabelli has more to do for the fact that he has been at or under .200 for the past 2 seasons, he's slower than a sea slug and he couldn't throw out an 80 year old with a walker. That's why I have this "utter hatred" for him.


Like i said, its youre perrogative. I just havent ever watched a game and been happy at the end because a pitcher lowered his BAA or WHIP. Wins make me happy. Losses dont. I dont care if a pitchers stats are "good" as long as they are good enough. Im certainly not arguing that Wakefield couldnt be improved upon. I just dont happen to think he is worthless.

[EverettsTheoryOfEvolution]

Ok, I started looking into some stats, but the farther I went, the more I realized I needed to look at more and more things, which I don't have time for at work, so I'll just put down some of the preliminary things I found:

League average closer is 20.89 of 26 = 21.7 of 27 save opps this season
Paps is 25 of 27, so he gives +3.3 wins of value over an MLB average closer.

By comparison, the difference between our best starter (Beckett: 14-5) and our worst starter (Wakes: 13-10) is 3 games.

So, if you replaced Paps with a league average closer (lose 3.3 games), and replace Wakes with Paps in the rotation, Paps would have to pitch better than Beckett to make up for the losses accrued by the league average closer.

Now, this comparison is flawed, because we are not replacing with a league average closer, we're replacing him with Oki - unfortunately we don't have enough data on him as a closer to do a meaningful comparison. To further complicate issues, a closer converting saves also influences starters' W-L records to a degree, making some interdependancies in the data. So, this is where more work is required that I don't have time for now. However, I do think I have shown that the closer role is as important as the starter role :)

Looking at the requirements for success, based on the above, I think it is more likely that Oki can close as well as Paps than it is that Paps can start better than Beckett, especially in the short term. The question is, at what point does the difference in performance overlap? How much worse could Oki be than Paps, and how much worse than Becket can Paps be (or better than Wakes does he need to be), to still have the move be overall positive? Obviously, if they perform better, then it becomes moot, but that's a risky assumption.

Note: Yes, I used W-L to evaluate the starters, but they are all pitching within the same environment, so the stats are comparable. Re: Lusko's argument about whether a starter losing a game 2-1 should be considered a bad outing? No, it shouldn't, but over the course of an entire season, those things will even out more or less - we aren't looking at a single game. As long as the pitchers in question are pitching in the same environment, and we consider the entire season, we can compare wins and losses.

So, in conclusion, my conclusion is: inconclusive.

[luso2kx]

Like i said, its youre perrogative. I just havent ever watched a game and been happy at the end because a pitcher lowered his BAA or WHIP. Wins make me happy. Losses dont. I dont care if a pitchers stats are "good" as long as they are good enough. Im certainly not arguing that Wakefield couldnt be improved upon. I just dont happen to think he is worthless.
A fan cares about wins, but generally don't notice as to why those wins happened, just that they "happened".

Fact of the matter is that those peripheral stats, on a team that has a decen offense will ALWAYS equate to a high win total. The only exception to that rule is a pitcher who, even though his starts are terrible statistically, he manages to get wins because his offense is able to score more runs than he gives up.

Take the lines from these 2 pitchers, call them Pitcher A and Pitcher B, and I won't put up the decision just yet:

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 bgColor=#000000>
<TBODY><TR bgColor=#e9e9e9><TD colSpan=8>PITCHER A</TD></TR><TR><TD></TD><TD align=middle>IP</TD><TD align=middle>H</TD><TD align=middle>R</TD><TD align=middle>ER</TD><TD align=middle>BB</TD><TD align=middle>K</TD><TD align=middle>HR</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>Start 1</TD><TD align=middle>7</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>Start 2</TD><TD align=middle>8.1</TD><TD align=middle>7</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>10</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>Start 3</TD><TD align=middle>7.2</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>9</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>TOTAL</TD><TD align=middle>23</TD><TD align=middle>13</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>25</TD><TD align=middle>2[/B</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#e9e9e9><TD colSpan=8>[B]PITCHER B</TD></TR><TR><TD></TD><TD align=middle>IP</TD><TD align=middle>H</TD><TD align=middle>R</TD><TD align=middle>ER</TD><TD align=middle>BB</TD><TD align=middle>K</TD><TD align=middle>HR</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>Start 1</TD><TD align=middle>5.1</TD><TD align=middle>9</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>Start 2</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>Start 3</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>12</TD><TD align=middle>8</TD><TD align=middle>8</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>TOTAL</TD><TD align=middle>15.1</TD><TD align=middle>27</TD><TD align=middle>18</TD><TD align=middle>18</TD><TD align=middle>16</TD><TD align=middle>9</TD><TD align=middle>7</TD></TR></TABLE>

From those numbers, Pitcher A has these peripherals:
2.35 ERA
0.78 WHIP
.149 BAA

While Pitcher B has these peripherals:
10.59 ERA
2.85 WHIP
.303 BAA

First glance, Pitcher A is a bona fide stud, as he should look. Now, let's put in the decisions shall we?

Pitcher A:
- In start #1, he left the game with the 5-3 lead. The opposing team then puts up 3 in the 8th to end up winning 6-5.
0W 0L 1N/D

- In start #2, he gets taken out of the 9th with 1 out and 2 on and the team down 2-1., which ends up being the final score
0W 1L 1N/D

- In start #3, he leaves with 2 outs in the 8th and the team up 3-1. They end up holding the lead for the win.
1W 1L 1N/D


Now

Pitcher B:
- In start #1, he gets slapped silly and is serving up BP going into the 6th. However, the offense had already hung a 9 spot in the 3rd inning, so he still picks up the win:
1W 0L 0N/D

- In start #2, he gets taken yard twice, but only gives up 4 earned runs this time. Once again, the offense struk hard, scoring 6 in the 2nd inning. Once again, another win:
2W 0L 0N/D

- Finally, in start #3, he has his worst start yet but manages to escape the top of the 5th, down 8-4. Once again, this never say die defense comes back and hangs 5 in the bottom of the 5th:
3W 0L 0N/D

So, Pitcher A only won 1 game and lost another, even though he kept his team in the game in every start. However, his thankless offense doesn't help out.

However, Pitcher B gets tattooed like a naked coed at Mardi Gras in every start, but because his offense his god-like, he weasels away with 3 wins.

So, with this out of the way, do you still want to insist on saying that wins and losses are a good way to measure starting pitchers and not the peripheral stats? If you insist on yes, then I can assure you that every GM and manager worth more than 2 cents will strongly disagree with you.

[Mikiemo83]

are they on the same team or is one a Royal while the other a Yankee?


that would explain the run differential, if on the same team you would require a whole season to even it out

[EverettsTheoryOfEvolution]

Mikie beat me to it - if you cherry pick the data to only view the extreme cases, you'll get all kinds of strange results. Of course, the point is taken that W-L record is not a perfect metric to judge a pitcher's skill - however it is not useless either. Rather than just throw it out the window, it should be considered in the proper context.

[southcarolina]

If a starter goes 0-10 with an ERA of around 3.20 and a WHIP of 1.10, then only a fool would "rail" on him. Common sense would say that the poor bastard is on a team that has a totally inept offense.

The peripheral stats such as ERA, WHIP, BAA, K/9, OPS against, etc... measure the pitcher as an INDIVIDUAL. If those stats are good, then the wins SHOULD come naturally, provided he's pitching for a team that doesn't have a pathetic offense.

On the other end, if a pitcher has amassed 17 wins in a season but has an ERA of 4.90 or 5.00 and a WHIP of 1.65, that means that the ONLY reason he won those 17 games was because he pitched for a team that was putting up runs by the boatload.

And my "utter hatred" for Mirabelli has more to do for the fact that he has been at or under .200 for the past 2 seasons, he's slower than a sea slug and he couldn't throw out an 80 year old with a walker. That's why I have this "utter hatred" for him.


So is a WHIP of 1.10 considered good? There are exactly 35 pitchers in AL with a WHIP of 1.10 or lower. Of these 35, 7 have pitched in less than 5 games. So there are 28 guys in the AL that have a WHIP that is "good"?


Tim Wakefield has a WHIP of 1.36, which is the 100th best WHIP in the AL. That puts him pretty damn close to being in the upper third of the AL.

He has a BAA of .253, which ranks him 120th in the AL, and puts him squarely in the upper half of the AL.

He has a OB% against of .327, 98th in the AL, and again nearly in the top third of all AL pitchers.

He has a SLG against of .426, 141st and still (just barely) in the upper half of all AL pitchers.

I am not making the case that Tim Wakefield is the best pitcher ever, or that he is even the best pitcher on the RedSox, or that he couldnt be upgraded. I just dont think he is worthless. But i also know that nothing i say or do will convince you otherwise.

So we agree to disagree.

[southcarolina]

A fan cares about wins, but generally don't notice as to why those wins happened, just that they "happened".

Fact of the matter is that those peripheral stats, on a team that has a decen offense will ALWAYS equate to a high win total. The only exception to that rule is a pitcher who, even though his starts are terrible statistically, he manages to get wins because his offense is able to score more runs than he gives up.

Take the lines from these 2 pitchers, call them Pitcher A and Pitcher B, and I won't put up the decision just yet:

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 bgColor=#000000>
<TBODY><TR bgColor=#e9e9e9><TD colSpan=8>PITCHER A</TD></TR><TR><TD></TD><TD align=middle>IP</TD><TD align=middle>H</TD><TD align=middle>R</TD><TD align=middle>ER</TD><TD align=middle>BB</TD><TD align=middle>K</TD><TD align=middle>HR</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>Start 1</TD><TD align=middle>7</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>Start 2</TD><TD align=middle>8.1</TD><TD align=middle>7</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>10</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>Start 3</TD><TD align=middle>7.2</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>9</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>TOTAL</TD><TD align=middle>23</TD><TD align=middle>13</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>25</TD><TD align=middle>2[/B</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#e9e9e9><TD colSpan=8>[B]PITCHER B</TD></TR><TR><TD></TD><TD align=middle>IP</TD><TD align=middle>H</TD><TD align=middle>R</TD><TD align=middle>ER</TD><TD align=middle>BB</TD><TD align=middle>K</TD><TD align=middle>HR</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>Start 1</TD><TD align=middle>5.1</TD><TD align=middle>9</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>3</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>Start 2</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>Start 3</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>12</TD><TD align=middle>8</TD><TD align=middle>8</TD><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>TOTAL</TD><TD align=middle>15.1</TD><TD align=middle>27</TD><TD align=middle>18</TD><TD align=middle>18</TD><TD align=middle>16</TD><TD align=middle>9</TD><TD align=middle>7</TD></TR>
</TABLE>

From those numbers, Pitcher A has these peripherals:
2.35 ERA
0.78 WHIP
.149 BAA

While Pitcher B has these peripherals:
10.59 ERA
2.85 WHIP
.303 BAA

First glance, Pitcher A is a bona fide stud, as he should look. Now, let's put in the decisions shall we?

Pitcher A:
- In start #1, he left the game with the 5-3 lead. The opposing team then puts up 3 in the 8th to end up winning 6-5.
0W 0L 1N/D

- In start #2, he gets taken out of the 9th with 1 out and 2 on and the team down 2-1., which ends up being the final score
0W 1L 1N/D

- In start #3, he leaves with 2 outs in the 8th and the team up 3-1. They end up holding the lead for the win.
1W 1L 1N/D


Now

Pitcher B:
- In start #1, he gets slapped silly and is serving up BP going into the 6th. However, the offense had already hung a 9 spot in the 3rd inning, so he still picks up the win:
1W 0L 0N/D

- In start #2, he gets taken yard twice, but only gives up 4 earned runs this time. Once again, the offense struk hard, scoring 6 in the 2nd inning. Once again, another win:
2W 0L 0N/D

- Finally, in start #3, he has his worst start yet but manages to escape the top of the 5th, down 8-4. Once again, this never say die defense comes back and hangs 5 in the bottom of the 5th:
3W 0L 0N/D

So, Pitcher A only won 1 game and lost another, even though he kept his team in the game in every start. However, his thankless offense doesn't help out.

However, Pitcher B gets tattooed like a naked coed at Mardi Gras in every start, but because his offense his god-like, he weasels away with 3 wins.

So, with this out of the way, do you still want to insist on saying that wins and losses are a good way to measure starting pitchers and not the peripheral stats? If you insist on yes, then I can assure you that every GM and manager worth more than 2 cents will strongly disagree with you.



The other side of this coin is that if the RedSox offense had shown up against the immortal Robinson Tejada, Tomo Ohka, Joe Kennedy and Kai Igawa, that Wakefield could very easily be 17-6 right now.


He gave up a total of 10 earned runs in those four games againt three VERY good offenses(Tex, MFY, and Tor) and Oakland :) but took the loss in all four.

[luso2kx]

are they on the same team or is one a Royal while the other a Yankee?


that would explain the run differential, if on the same team you would require a whole season to even it outThis is not the point. In fact, if anything, you validate my thesis that wins are worthless in evaluating a pitcher's individual performance. Like you said, you take the team's effort into account in evaluating wins and losses.

[luso2kx]

Mikie beat me to it - if you cherry pick the data to only view the extreme cases, you'll get all kinds of strange results. Of course, the point is taken that W-L record is not a perfect metric to judge a pitcher's skill - however it is not useless either. Rather than just throw it out the window, it should be considered in the proper context.The exaggeration was done to prove a point, a valid point.

When you discard the peripheral stats that indicate the pitcher's overall performance and just go by how many wins or losses he has, you run the very high risk of overrating a pitcher. General Managers and Managers alike prefer to look at peripheral stats because of this, especially when it comes time to aquire a pitcher. If a pitcher on the free agent market had a 8-12 record the previous year, but had an ERA under 3.50 and a WHIP around or just a tad higher than 1, then it tells them that, if they have an offense that decent enough, that he could have 10 or more wins and fewer losses.

In Wakefield's example, his 13 wins may look impressive, but when you take into the account that he averages nearly 5 runs given up for every 9 innings and adds that by giving up and hit and/or a walk almost 1 and a half times each inning, then it tells you that, in many cases, he gets bailed out by the offense.

[luso2kx]

The other side of this coin is that if the RedSox offense had shown up against the immortal Robinson Tejada, Tomo Ohka, Joe Kennedy and Kai Igawa, that Wakefield could very easily be 17-6 right now.


He gave up a total of 10 earned runs in those four games againt three VERY good offenses(Tex, MFY, and Tor) and Oakland :) but took the loss in all four.
So, you're agreeing with me that wins and losses aren't a valid indicator in evaluating starting pitchers?

[luso2kx]

So is a WHIP of 1.10 considered good? There are exactly 35 pitchers in AL with a WHIP of 1.10 or lower. Of these 35, 7 have pitched in less than 5 games. So there are 28 guys in the AL that have a WHIP that is "good"?Ok, for starters, you're doing it all wrong. You need to focus mainly on Qualified starters(minimum of 120ip to this date). Not all pitchers. That's going to misconstrue the data horribly.


Tim Wakefield has a WHIP of 1.36, which is the 100th best WHIP in the AL. That puts him pretty damn close to being in the upper third of the AL.Actually, no it does not, it ranks him 21 out of all 32 qualified AL starters. That's the lower half of the ranking.

Link (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?sort=WHIP&split=127&league=al&season=2007&seasonType=2&type=pitch3&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&hand=a&pos=all&minip=120)



He has a BAA of .253, which ranks him 120th in the AL, and puts him squarely in the upper half of the AL.Again, no it does not. It ranks him 16 out of 32 qualified AL pitchers. Right dead in the middle.

Link (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?sort=opponentAvg&split=127&league=al&season=2007&seasonType=2&type=pitch4&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&hand=a&pos=all&minip=120)

He has a OB% against of .327, 98th in the AL, and again nearly in the top third of all AL pitchers.Nope. 22 out of 32 qualified AL starters. Lower half.

Link (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?sort=opponentOnBasePct&split=127&league=al&season=2007&seasonType=2&type=pitch4&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&hand=a&pos=all&minip=120)

He has a SLG against of .426, 141st and still (just barely) in the upper half of all AL pitchers.Nope. 23 out of 32 qualified AL starters.

Link (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?sort=opponentSlugAvg&split=127&league=al&season=2007&seasonType=2&type=pitch4&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&hand=a&pos=all&minip=120)

I am not making the case that Tim Wakefield is the best pitcher ever, or that he is even the best pitcher on the RedSox, or that he couldnt be upgraded. I just dont think he is worthless. But i also know that nothing i say or do will convince you otherwise.

So we agree to disagree.Maybe not worthless per se, but pretty bad. But it's the fact that our lineup is directly affected by it because of that damm catcher he "needs". If we didn't have Wakefield, we could actually go out and get a backup that doesn't induce vomiting every 5 days.

[luso2kx]

Oh yeah. The good eggheads over at Baseball Prospectus put out an article detailing how worthless a save is nowadays, and what they recommend to give it more value.

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6567

[southcarolina]

So, you're agreeing with me that wins and losses aren't a valid indicator in evaluating starting pitchers?


No. I was merely pointing out there are times this season when Wakefield didnt get any run support, and pitched very well. Its disengenuous to say that the ONLY reason Wakefield has 13 wins is because the offense bailed him out each and every time.


I think wins and losses are a valid indicator of performance. Maybe not the best indicator, but valid. Because a pitcher CAN single handedly win, or single handedly lose a game, i dont think you can just completely ignore wins and losses.The flip side of this is that sometimes pitchers win games in which they dont pitch all that well and sometimes they lose games in which they do pitch well. Wakefield has had a few of each of these this season. It all evens out over the course of 162 games. If you only concentrate on the times he pitched badly (whether he won or lost the game) then you arent being objective.

Again i would like to empasize that i am not trying to get Wakefield voted into the HOF. I am merely trying to illustrate that he does have some value, and that he isnt worthless. I agree that Mirabelli must go, and that if possible, upgrading the rotation next season would be great. But i just dont agree that Wakefield is useless.

[southcarolina]

Oh yeah. The good eggheads over at Baseball Prospectus put out an article detailing how worthless a save is nowadays, and what they recommend to give it more value.

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6567


Saves are overrated. But that doesnt mean that having a dominant 9th inning guy is too :)

[luso2kx]

Saves are overrated. But that doesnt mean that having a dominant 9th inning guy is too :)
Except that Papelbon is not as dominating as people make him out to be. To be a "dominant" 9th inning guy, you'd have to be durable too, and he can barely go 2 days straight.

[southcarolina]

Ok, for starters, you're doing it all wrong. You need to focus mainly on Qualified starters(minimum of 120ip to this date). Not all pitchers. That's going to misconstrue the data horribly.




Of course i am.

Its only misconstruing the data because it doesnt support your argument. A pitcher is a pitcher, imo.

[southcarolina]

and he can barely go 2 days straight.


You have some data to back that up?

[luso2kx]

Of course i am.

Its only misconstruing the data because it doesnt support your argument. A pitcher is a pitcher, imo.So, a AAA callup who has 1 MLB start, pitches a CG, gives up one earned run in the process, and then is called back down, should be put in the same comparisons as one that has pitched at least 120 inning in the majors this season?

Please tell me you're kidding.

[luso2kx]

You have some data to back that up?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=6373

Pitched 2 consequetive days all of 3 TIMES this season.

That was rather easy, now wasn't it?

[southcarolina]

So, a AAA callup who has 1 MLB start, pitches a CG, gives up one earned run in the process, and then is called back down, should be put in the same comparisons as one that has pitched at least 120 inning in the majors this season?

Please tell me you're kidding.

OK....yeah i wasnt thinking about that...i was just thinking starter vs reliever. Look we arent ever going to agree on this. So im stopping. You win. Wakefield sucks.

Im going to find something else to do now :)

[southcarolina]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=6373

Pitched 2 consequetive days all of 3 TIMES this season.

That was rather easy, now wasn't it?


That doesnt mean he wasnt capable of it.


Grrr.... stopping. Im stopping. :)